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How Earnings Grow (or Stall) from Year 6 to Year 10

Most college rankings use a single salary snapshot. The Scorecard tracks earnings over five time horizons—revealing which schools’ graduates keep climbing and which ones hit a ceiling.

When families evaluate the financial return on a college degree, they almost always look at a single number: what do graduates earn? It’s a reasonable starting point. But it’s only a snapshot—a freeze-frame of an earnings trajectory that can look dramatically different depending on when you take the picture.

The College Scorecard provides something much more powerful: earnings data at multiple time horizons after students first enroll—at years 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and even 11 after entry. This trajectory data reveals a dimension of college value that single-point salary figures miss entirely. Some schools’ graduates see steady, compounding earnings growth. Others plateau. And at 51 institutions, graduates actually earn less at year 10 than they did at year 6.

The national median growth from year 6 to year 10 is about 19%—a healthy $8,700 increase from $45,500 to $54,200. But the range spans from a 48% decline to a 177% surge. That variation tells a story about the long-term value of a degree that no single-year salary figure can capture.

The Trajectory Effect: Selectivity and Earnings Growth

One of the sharpest patterns in the data is the relationship between institutional selectivity and the earnings trajectory. Schools that are harder to get into don’t just produce graduates who earn more—they produce graduates whose earnings grow faster over time.

Graduates of the most selective institutions (admission rates below 20%) earn a median of $72,400 at year 6 and $85,100 at year 10—an 18% increase. But the gap is even more telling in absolute terms: those graduates add roughly $12,700 to their annual earnings over this window.

Schools in the 20–40% admission range show the strongest percentage growth at 28%, rising from $48,500 to $62,300. These institutions—many of them strong regional universities and selective liberal arts colleges—appear to be a particular sweet spot for earnings momentum.

At less selective schools (admission rates above 80%), the trajectory is flatter. Graduates start at $45,000 and reach $53,600—a 19% increase. That’s still meaningful growth, but the dollar gap between them and graduates of more selective institutions widens over time. At year 6, the gap between the most and least selective tiers is about $27,300. By year 10, it’s $31,500.

The Growth Distribution: Where Most Schools Land

Zooming out from selectivity, the full distribution of earnings growth across all 1,676 institutions tells an important story about what “normal” looks like—and where the outliers sit.

The single largest group—666 schools (40%)—delivers earnings growth between 10% and 20%. Another 502 schools (30%) land in the 20–30% range. Together, these two categories account for 70% of all institutions. If your school falls in this zone, its graduates are experiencing typical, healthy earnings growth.

At the margins, the picture is more interesting. 51 schools show declining earnings from year 6 to year 10. These institutions’ graduates actually earn less a decade after enrollment than they did four years earlier. Many of these are schools with unusual student profiles—online-focused institutions whose students may be career changers, or very small schools with volatile cohort data.

On the high end, 100 schools deliver growth above 40%. These tend to be institutions with lower initial earnings ($32,700 at year 6)—often arts conservatories, religious schools, or specialized programs where careers take longer to ramp up but eventually reach competitive salaries.

This is a crucial insight: a low year-6 salary doesn’t necessarily mean a bad investment. Some of the highest-growth schools are ones where graduates start slow but build significant earnings momentum over time. Looking only at early-career salary would completely miss this pattern.

Starting Point vs. Growth: The Tradeoff

When we plot every institution by its year-6 earnings (starting point) and its growth rate over the next four years, a clear pattern emerges—but it’s not the one most people expect.

There’s a moderate negative relationship between starting salary and growth rate. Schools whose graduates start with lower earnings tend to show higher percentage growth, while those whose graduates start high tend to show more modest growth. This makes economic sense: a graduate earning $90,000 at year 6 has less room for percentage growth than one earning $30,000, even if both are advancing in their careers.

But the scatter reveals important exceptions. The Cooper Union—a specialized engineering and art school in New York—shows both strong starting earnings ($39,700) and explosive growth (111%), reaching $83,800 by year 10. Conversely, Western Governors University, despite relatively high initial earnings ($69,600), shows a 13% decline to $60,600—likely reflecting its nontraditional student body of career changers who may have already been earning well before enrolling.

What This Means for Families

Don’t stop at year-one salary. The single most important lesson from this data is that early-career earnings can be misleading. A school or program that produces modest starting salaries but strong growth may deliver better lifetime earnings than one with higher starting pay that plateaus. Look at earnings at multiple time horizons—the Scorecard provides them.

Selectivity creates compounding advantages. Graduates of more selective institutions don’t just start higher—they grow faster in dollar terms. The gap widens over time. This doesn’t mean everyone should only apply to elite schools, but it does mean that selectivity is a real signal of long-term earnings potential.

Watch out for declining trajectories. Fifty-one schools show outright earnings declines from year 6 to year 10. If a school you’re considering falls in this category, dig deeper. It may serve a nontraditional population, or it may be a genuine warning sign about the durability of the degree’s value.

High-growth “slow starters” are a real category. Conservatories, arts schools, and some mission-driven colleges produce graduates who start with modest salaries but show dramatic growth—sometimes exceeding 50% in just four years. If your student is drawn to these paths, the trajectory data can provide reassurance that the investment eventually pays off.

Compare trajectories, not snapshots. If you’re choosing between two schools, look at both the year-6 and year-10 earnings. A school where graduates earn $40,000 at year 6 but $56,000 at year 10 (40% growth) may be a better long-term investment than one where they earn $50,000 at year 6 but only $53,000 at year 10 (6% growth).

The Bottom Line

A college degree is a multi-decade investment. Evaluating it with a single salary number is like judging a stock by its price on one day. The College Scorecard’s trajectory data lets families see the earnings story as it actually unfolds—the slope of the line, not just the point.

At the typical school, graduates see about 19% earnings growth from year 6 to year 10—a solid, positive return. But the range is enormous. Some schools produce graduates whose earnings accelerate. Others produce graduates who stall. The Scorecard makes it possible to tell the difference before writing the tuition check.

Look at the trajectory. It tells the real story.

 

Data source: U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard, released November 2025. Earnings figures are median annual earnings at specified years after initial enrollment. Analysis includes 1,676 four-year institutions with both year-6 and year-10 earnings data available. Growth calculated as (year 10 − year 6) / year 6. All figures in nominal dollars.