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The same forces reshaping admissions are pulling selective liberal arts colleges in two very different directions

Colby College, a small liberal arts school in Waterville, Maine, received 7,593 applications in 2015. By 2024, that number had surged to 19,187—a 153 percent increase that outpaced Harvard, Stanford, and nearly every research university in the country. Colby’s acceptance rate fell from 23 percent to 7 percent. Its yield—the share of admitted students who enroll—rose from 30 percent to 46 percent. By every admissions metric, Colby is a school on the rise.

Thirty miles to the north, in spirit if not in geography, lies a different story. Oberlin College, one of the most storied liberal arts institutions in the country, saw its applications grow just 35 percent over the same period—less than half the rate of an average selective school. Its acceptance rate actually rose, from 29 to 34 percent. Its yield was cut nearly in half, from 35 percent to 19 percent. Oberlin is not failing. But by the enrollment metrics that shape institutional health, it is losing ground.

These two trajectories represent the poles of a structural shift that is remaking the landscape of small, residential liberal arts colleges. As a group, selective LACs are not collapsing—but they are falling behind, steadily and measurably, in the enrollment competition with research universities. And within the LAC category itself, a widening gap has opened between a handful of ascendant schools and a larger cohort that is quietly struggling.

The Yield Gap

The clearest sign of the LAC’s eroding competitive position is yield. Over the past decade, the average yield at the 43 selective liberal arts colleges in our dataset has slipped from about 35 percent to 33 percent—a modest decline that obscures considerable turmoil within the group. Over the same period, the average yield at 33 selective research universities climbed from 46 percent to 55 percent.

The gap between the two categories has roughly doubled, from 11 points to 22 points. In 2015, a research university was about a third more likely than a liberal arts college to convert an admitted student into an enrolled one. By 2024, it was about two-thirds more likely.

The COVID year of 2020 was particularly brutal for LACs, which saw their average yield drop to 30.5 percent—a five-point plunge that signaled how fragile their enrollment position had become. Research universities also dipped that year, but recovered quickly to levels higher than pre-pandemic. LACs never fully bounced back.

Two Kinds of LACs

The aggregate numbers, though, can mislead. Within the liberal arts college world, there is not one story but two—and the divide between them is growing sharper each year.

The thriving LACs share several common features. They tend to be the wealthiest (by endowment per student), the most selective, and the most nationally branded. Colby’s application surge followed a multi-billion-dollar campus investment and a deliberate strategy to raise its national profile. Williams, Amherst, and Bowdoin—the so-called “Little Ivies”—maintained their high yields and saw strong application growth (124 percent for Williams, 95 percent for Bowdoin, 60 percent for Amherst). Pomona, Middlebury, and Davidson also held or gained ground. These schools are running the same prestige flywheel that benefits Harvard and Stanford: lower acceptance rates generate more media attention, which drives more applications, which pushes acceptance rates lower still.

The struggling LACs form a larger and more diverse group. Oberlin, Kenyon, Reed, Union, Connecticut College, Dickinson, Colorado College, and Scripps all saw their yields decline—in some cases dramatically. Their application growth, while positive, lagged far behind the category average. Several saw their acceptance rates rise, the opposite direction from the broader trend at selective schools. These institutions are not in crisis—their academic programs remain strong, their campuses are well-maintained, and their graduates do well. But they are losing the enrollment competition for the students they most want.

The pattern is almost perfectly correlated with endowment wealth. The five LACs with the largest endowments per student—Amherst ($1.75 million), Swarthmore ($1.65 million), Pomona ($1.59 million), Williams ($1.58 million), and Grinnell ($1.41 million)—all maintained or gained yield. Schools with smaller endowments per student, despite comparable academic reputations, disproportionately populate the declining group. Money, it turns out, buys not just financial aid but also the campus investments, marketing capacity, and brand-building that drive enrollment success.

The Application Gap

The yield divergence is partly a consequence of a deeper problem: liberal arts colleges are not attracting applications at the same rate as research universities.

Between 2015 and 2024, the average selective research university saw its application volume grow by 66 percent. The average selective LAC grew by 50 percent. A 16-point gap in application growth may not sound dramatic, but compounded over a decade and multiplied across dozens of schools, it represents a fundamental shift in where students are choosing to apply.

The variation within the LAC category is more telling than the average. Colby’s applications more than doubled. Williams grew 124 percent, Bowdoin 95 percent. But Kenyon grew just 16 percent, Dickinson 20 percent, Oberlin 35 percent. The application boom that has reshaped admissions at research universities has been highly uneven at liberal arts colleges—lifting the boats with the strongest brands while leaving others with only modest tailwinds.

What’s Behind the Shift?

The Common App levels the playing field—but not equally. When it costs nothing extra to add a school to your list, students tend to add more well-known names. Research universities with strong brand recognition—NYU, Northeastern, Boston University—have been among the biggest beneficiaries of this frictionless application culture. Many liberal arts colleges, whose appeal depends on a more intimate understanding of their distinctive programs, do not benefit as much from the “why not add it” impulse.

Size is a structural disadvantage in the attention economy. A school with 2,000 undergraduates produces fewer alumni, generates less media coverage, fields fewer Division I sports teams, and has a smaller social media footprint than a school with 15,000. In a world where institutional visibility is increasingly driven by online presence and viral moments, small schools face a permanent headwind. This is not a reflection of educational quality—but in the admissions marketplace, visibility matters.

Career anxiety favors universities. Today’s applicants and their families are more career-focused than perhaps any previous generation. The appeal of a research university—with its pre-professional programs, business and engineering schools, urban internship pipelines, and corporate recruiting presence—resonates with students who see college primarily as a pathway to employment. The liberal arts pitch—that broad intellectual exploration produces adaptable, creative thinkers who succeed in any field—is harder to make in a 30-second elevator conversation, even though there is substantial evidence supporting it.

Location increasingly matters. Among the LACs losing yield, a disproportionate number are in small towns or rural areas: Oberlin (Ohio), Kenyon (Gambier, Ohio), Grinnell (Iowa), Reed (Portland, which is mid-size), Dickinson (Carlisle, Pennsylvania). The thriving LACs are either in or very near desirable locations (Claremont McKenna near Los Angeles, Barnard in New York City) or have invested so heavily in campus life that the location becomes secondary (Colby, Middlebury). For a generation of students raised on urban culture and anxious about geographic isolation, a small-town setting is a harder sell than it was twenty years ago.

What This Means for Families

A declining yield does not mean a declining education. Oberlin’s yield is half of what it was a decade ago, but its conservatory remains world-class, its faculty-to-student ratio is still enviable, and its graduates still go on to top graduate programs and careers. The enrollment metrics reflect competitive dynamics—how a school performs in the market for 18-year-olds—not the quality of what happens in the classroom. Parents who dismiss a school because its yield is falling may be overlooking exactly the kind of institution where their child would thrive.

Struggling LACs may offer your family the best financial deal. Schools that are working harder to fill their classes have strong incentives to offer generous merit scholarships to students they want. If your child is a strong applicant who genuinely values the liberal arts experience, a school in the “struggling” category may roll out the red carpet in ways that a Harvard or a Colby never would. Demonstrated interest—visiting campus, attending information sessions, engaging with admissions officers—matters enormously at these schools.

The thriving LACs are now as competitive as many Ivies. Colby’s 7 percent acceptance rate, Williams’s 8 percent, and Bowdoin’s 7 percent are in the same neighborhood as Brown, Dartmouth, and Cornell. Families who view liberal arts colleges as a less competitive alternative to research universities are operating on outdated assumptions. The top LACs are as selective as they have ever been—and getting more so.

Visit before you judge. The liberal arts model—small classes, close faculty mentorship, a residential community centered on learning—is fundamentally different from the research university experience. Some students flourish in one setting and wilt in the other. Statistics cannot tell you which one your child is. A campus visit to a strong LAC, even one with a declining yield, can clarify whether the model is right for your family in ways that no amount of data analysis can.

An Unfinished Story

The liberal arts college is not dying. The very best LACs are thriving, their admissions numbers rivaling the Ivies. And even the schools losing enrollment ground remain, by any objective measure, among the finest undergraduate institutions in the world.

But the category as a whole is being reshaped by forces that favor size, brand recognition, urban location, and pre-professional orientation—none of which are intrinsic strengths of the small residential college. The schools that have found ways to compensate—through massive endowments, aggressive brand-building, or distinctive programs that cut through the noise—are pulling away. The rest are adapting, but from an increasingly difficult position.

For families willing to look past the rankings and the yield statistics, the liberal arts college remains one of the most transformative educational experiences available. The question is whether enough families will continue to discover that—or whether the slow fade will continue.

 

Methodology: This analysis draws on IPEDS institutional data (2015–2024) for approximately 113 selective colleges. Liberal arts colleges (n=43) were identified as small, primarily undergraduate, residential institutions with a liberal arts mission. Research universities (n=33) include Ivy League schools, major research institutions, and large selective universities. Endowment-per-student figures are from the College Insights 2025 panel. Application growth and yield calculated from IPEDS admissions data. Some schools appear in both the “thriving” and “struggling” discussions to illustrate the range; these labels describe enrollment trends, not academic quality.